By Bruce Levine—
(CBS) Why no movement in MLB offseason marketplace? There are a few major dominoes to fall that could put things on hold during the month of December.
Shohei Otani, the two-way phenom from Japan, is set to become a major-league free agent by the weekend. He is of interest to all 30 major league clubs, and his status has been in limbo until last week. Ohtani’s American agents have sent all MLB clubs criteria for signing the unique pitcher-position player.
“The Otani situation has a uniquely talented player out there in the open market,” Orioles general manager Dan Duquette said on 670 The Score’s ‘Inside the Clubhouse.’ “Teams have certainly wanted to see where that goes.”
Otani will not be allowed to sign for more than the International bonus maximum of $3.5 million. The team he chooses must pay a posting fee of $20 million to his Japanese club, the Nippon Ham Fighters. Otani will want assurances that he can play a position or designated hitter when he is not pitching, which favors American League teams. The Cubs and White Sox will both be extremely aggressive in the pursuit of Otani.
Otani has been the main cause of an offseason slow-down in free agent signing progress. The Yankees and Twins have the max of $3.5 million in international money to offer Otani. The Cubs have only $300,000 to offer. That first-year contract figure should not necessarily determine where the player wants to go. Franchise viability, marketing opportunities, and city livability are factors for Otani in his final choice of team.
Then there’s Scott Boras, the super-agent that has four of the top free agents in the marketplace. Jake Arrieta is arguably the top starting pitcher available, along with Yu Darvish. JD Martinez, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas, each of whom round out the Boras power-laden free agents available.
Martinez hit 45 home runs in 119 games, making a major impact after being traded from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks. The first price rumored for him was a $200 million contract. Moustakas is a third baseman that hit 38 home runs, while his Royals teammate Hosmer managed 25 long balls in 2017.
Boras certainly doesn’t have a reputation for taking the first deal offered. He is so good at analyzing the marketplace and could hold players on the market until early 2018. Clubs will do all they can to get other players signed before the winter meetings. Boras will have full media attention from December 10-14 during the winter meetings, where he can try to and manipulate to his clients best interests.
National League most valuable player Giancarlo Stanton – he of 59 homers and 132 RBIs last season – is also dictating the market. The new owners of the Miami Marlins have made it clear they will happily trade the top home run hitter in the game.
Stanton is owed $295 million over the next 10 seasons. He owns a full no-trade clause in the contract language. The conversations can continue between the Marlins and clubs like the Giants, Cardinals and the Dodgers.
Ultimately, Stanton will determine where he ends up. A native of Sherman Oaks, California, some way, somehow, you can see him ending up in Los Angeles.
According to industry sources, the Cubs have a few offers on the table for starting pitching and relief specialists. Free-agent starter Alex Cobb is believed to be mulling over offers from Chicago and other clubs on multi-year proposals. Cobb won 12 games for the Rays last season. He is 30 and now a couple years removed from Tommy John surgery.
With new pitching coach Jim Hickey joining the Cubs, that should be an edge for the team to sign Cobb if all offers are about the same. Cobb also pitched for manager Joe Maddon from 2011-‘14.
Starters Lance Lynn and Darvish are pitchers to watch with the Cubs and other teams in need of frontline starting pitching. Top bullpen free agents like Brandon Morrow and Brian Shaw are possible Cub targets.
The Cubs would also love to bring back closer Wade Davis. They apparently will not be the club that will establish the marketplace for closers.
“I think once you see a couple of pitchers sign, you will see teams become more active and players start to fall,” Duquette said. “I think the Cubs are looking for pitching and so are we. I am not sure we match up [for a trade.”
Duquette did admit he talked to the Cubs about a deal for a relief pitcher last July, a trade that would have been for closer Zach Britton. That possibility could be revisited after the teams make some initial moves the next couple of weeks.
Britton was limited to 38 games last season due to injury. He was the top closer in baseball during 2016 with an MLB leading 47 saves.
Bruce Levine covers the Cubs and White Sox for 670 The Score and CBSChicago.com. Follow him on Twitter @MLBBruceLevine.
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