By Bruce Levine–
CHICAGO (CBS) — The metrics say the Chicago Cubs have scored more runs than any National League team since the All-Star break. The RBI, runs scored and on-base percentage numbers are all top three across the MLB production board.
But are these numbers skewed?
What those 246 runs represent is an average of six runs scored per game. That is a very high number. The Cubs are 61-17 when scoring four runs or more in games this season. The team is 9-43 when plating three runs or less in 2017.
Since the All -Star break, the Cubs have outscored their opponents by a 73-run differential. That is tops in the National League. They are second in baseball to Cleveland’s, plus 75 since July 14. Pretty gaudy stats.
“The beauty of this team is everybody can hit 1 to 9 in the batting order,” Anthony Rizzo said. “I have always liked our offense. We just go out and grind at bats. We just have to keep believing in it.”
The Cubs scored an average of 4.5 runs per contest in their first 88 games before the break on July 10. So, there has been a 1.5 increase in median runs scored per game since the break.
“Those are nice numbers and heavy numbers,” Cubs Manager Joe Maddon said. “It does mean we have made some progress. No doubt about it. But we have had a few heavy (big run output) games that have increased or skewed the numbers.
“I do think we have done better with our two-strike approach. We have moved the baseball better. As we play this next month in really tough games, you have to do those little things well.”
All of these numbers appear to show the Cubs are a dominant offensive machine. Are they better than they were in the first half? Yes, they are. Dominant? Not so fast. Except for five games, they are a flat-line offense for the other 125 contests (4.6 runs per).
The Cubs have scored 74 of those 246 runs since July 14 in just five games. The run scored average for those five contests is 15 runs per game. The team is back to 4.6 runs scored per game in those other 37 games played since mid-July. Thus, 30 percent of the Cubs’ runs scored in the last 42 games have come in those five games.
All of this tells you that the real number the team has averaged is 4.5 runs per game. Chicago averaged 5 runs per game in winning 103 games in their World Series run of 2016. The overall impact is that they are down .5 runs per game this season.
“I don’t think we are looking at the offensive numbers as a group,” says Kyle Schwarber, who has a .860 OPS since returning to the team from Iowa in early July. “That is more a stat for people outside of the clubhouse. At the end of the day, we are more concerned with just winning that day’s game. We do not care if it is 10-9 or 2-1. We just want to win that game.”
Bruce Levine covers the Cubs and White Sox for 670 The Score and CBSChicago.com. Follow him on Twitter @MLBBruceLevine.
from CBS Chicago http://ift.tt/2xvDTaP
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